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It is against this background that a Public Sector Learning Framework Policy was established by MIND with the support of key public sector stakeholders1, and with the endorsement of the Cabinet Secretary. The PSLF proposes a more systematic approach to whole-of-government human resource development, and serves as the GoJs blueprint for building a culture of continuous learning and innovation within the public sector, and provides a coordinated approach to systematically map pathways towards building the required competencies and developing the necessary skill sets that will allow public officers to deliver the best value goods and services. Along with its overarching objective to provide a coherent policy structure for human resource development within the sector, so as to enable economic development and societal wellbeing through the delivery of efficient citizen services, the PSLF also seeks to:

1. Provide a coherent policy for human resource development within the sector. 2. Stimulate, guide and promote the development of a public sector that is genuinely committed to lifelong

learning. 3. Build a culture of innovation among public officers for better business outcomes. 4. Enhance the human resource capabilities needed to support the fulfilment of Vision 2030 Jamaica:

National Development Plan (NDP). 5. Develop a responsive public service able to quickly adjust to the changing needs of government. 6. Integrate learning and development across the public sector. 7. Provide clarity and coherence to the matrices of learning focus areas across the different job levels in

the public sector. 8. Provide high quality, relevant and standardized training within the public service. 9. Facilitate access, mobility and progression in learning and professional development paths within the

sector. 10. Develop a source of evaluating or assessing investment in and impact of human resource development

within the sector.

The implementation of the PSLF is being led by MIND, supported by a PSLF Working Group, and governed by a PSLF Oversight Committee which is chaired by the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of MIND. The Agency is supported by a PSLF Consultant/Advisor reporting through to the CEO.

3. SCOPE OF WORK Under the direct supervision of the PSLF Project Advisor/ Consultant the PSLF Project Officer will provide coordination support to ensure the achievement of the PSLF objectives and delivery of its outputs. Therefore, the PSLF Project Officer will:

o Liaise and coordinate activities with the relevant departments within the Agency in support of the implementation of the PSLF.

o Provide administrative support to the PSLF Project Advisor/ Consultant o Liaise with key external stakeholders to optimise access and to ensure timely organisation and

facilitation of activities relating to the PSLF implementation. o Assist with the design, development and dissemination of PSLF outputs. o Provide the necessary feedback, through reports and other forms of communiqué, on a timely basis, to

the PSLF Consultant/Advisor in order to inform engagements with the CEO and the PSLF Oversight Committee.

o Monitor PSLF implementation deliverables. o Draft any milestone and completion reports as necessary. o Provide input for the development of technical reports and other project outputs.

1 Cabinet Office, Ministry of Finance and Public Service (MoFP), Office of the Services Commissions (OSC), Strategic Human Resource Management Division within the MoFP, Jamaica Civil Service Association, Planning Institute of Jamaica and the Public Sector Modernisation Division and the Public Sector Transformation Unit, which have been recently amalgamated to form the Public Sector Transformation and Modernisation Programme.

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4. SCOPE OF WORK

The consultant is required to, utilizing best practice, develop the structure, templates

and drafts for the Public Investment Performance Report. The report will contain a

review of the public investment portfolio of the GOJ to include the central government,

Self-Financed Public Bodies and Public Private Partnerships under the purview of the

DBJ. The report will include an examination of ;

 Sectoral and functional classification of existing and planned investment

portfolio;

 Alignment of existing public investments with the long term national

development plan and medium term socioeconomic policy objectives;

 Trends in total public investment

 Efficiency and impact of public investment

 Actions taken to improve GOJ’s public investment management capacity

 Overview of the institutional performance along the project cycle including an

assessment of investment planning, investment allocation, investment

implementation, monitoring and evaluation

 Provide a review of the policy that guided the investments for the reporting

period to determine alignment to and variation from the policy and the resulting

outputs and impact;

 Include standard metrics to compare annual portfolio performance and sector

performance;

 Status of PIMSEC Project Pipeline

 Status of DBJ’s PPP Pipeline

The consultant will be required to have consultations with key stakeholders in the process to include:

Ministry of Finance and the Public Service  Public Investment Management Secretariat  Planning Institute of Jamaica  Specified Public Sector entities  Development Bank of Jamaica  Cabinet Office  Donor Agencies

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Medium-Term Debt Management Strategy FY2020/21-FY2023/24 23 | P a g e

0.6%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.9%

2.0%

2.6%

3.5%

5.7%

26.0%

28.0%

Flood Rains (2002)

Wilma (2005)

Sandy (2012)

Dennis and Emily

Nicole TS (2010)

Gustav TS (2008)

Dean (2007)

Charley (2004)

Ivan (2004)

Gilbert (1988)

Shock

The simulation assumes that the direct fiscal impact of the event is limited to emergency losses,

inclusive of the costs associated with damage to public infrastructure and expenditures on relief

and recovery activities as well as social expenditures to assist the indigent and other vulnerable

populations. These costs are estimated at US$652.8 million or 4.2 percent of GDP in the year of

impact and are assumed to be partly financed through ex-ante disaster risk financing (DRF)

resources currently available to the Government. Total ex-ante resources are estimated at

approximately US$416.3 million (see Figure 19)4. The excess of emergency losses over

available DRF resources of approximately US$236.5 million will be financed ex-post from

external sources, at less favourable terms compared to the ex-ante financing options.

4 Current ex-ante DRF resources available to the GOJ include the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility-Segregated

Portfolio Company (CCRIF-SPC) policy, IDB+Contingent+Credit+Facility">IDB Contingent Credit Facility, National Disaster Fund and the Contingencies Fund.

Figure 18: Estimated Impact of Natural Disasters as a Share of GDP

Source: Planning Institute of Jamaica and Ministry of Finance and

the Public Service

Figure 19: Estimated Financing Gap for the

1-100 year Event (US $mn)

Source: Ministry of Finance and the Public Service

The associated impact on key macroeconomic and market variables was modelled using additive

adjustments to baseline assumptions for real GDP growth, inflation, interest rates and the primary

balance. Figure 20 highlights the projected impact on real GDP growth over the medium-term

under the baseline and the shock scenario. Average real economic growth over the medium-term

is expected to decline from a baseline of 1.9 percent to 0.04 percent. The simulation assumes an

increase in inflation beyond the target band in the year of impact and an initial exchange rate

depreciation which exceeds baseline assumptions by 4.2 percentage points. The model further

assumes a parallel outward shift in the domestic yield curve by 300 bps, highlighting increased

credit risk in the aftermath of the disaster. The risk spread for JAMAN global bonds was also

increased by 300 bps in FY2021/22 and FY2022/23, after which it is assumed to return to the

17.8

285.0

113.5

236.5

Financing Gap

CCRIF-SPC

Contingent Credit Facility (IDB)

Contingencies Fund & National Disaster Fund

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Medium-Term Debt Management Strategy FY2020/21-FY2023/24 24 | P a g e

-4.0%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24

Baseline Shock Scenario

baseline. A minor adjustment of 50 bps was made to bilateral rates while multilateral rates are

assumed unchanged.

The deterioration in the primary balance relative to the baseline in the first two years results from

increased expenditures associated with disaster relief and recovery and the attendant weaker

revenue performance due to slowing economic activity post disaster (see Figure 21). The

trajectory of the primary balance implies a suspension of the fiscal rule (utilizing the escape

clause in the FAA Act) in the year of and the year after the event5. The higher primary balance in

the third year is consistent with the requirement to ensure a return to a sustainable debt path.

5 The escape clause is triggered by the occurrence of an event with an impact of at least 1.5 percent of GDP. The suspension of

the fiscal rules may last for at least one year, but no more than two years. At the end of the period of suspension, the Minister of Finance is required to table, in both Houses of Parliament, recommendations for recalibration of the fiscal balance.

Figure 20: Real GDP Growth under Baseline and Shock Scenario

Notes: Pass-through to real GDP growth under the shock scenario was modelled by the Planning Institute of Jamaica Source: Ministry of Finance and the Public Service , Planning Institute of Jamaica , Bank of Jamaica

Figure 21: Nominal Primary Balance under Baseline and Shock Scenario

Source: Ministry of Finance and the Public Service

The simulated impact on the debt portfolio is contingent on the financing strategy of the GOJ in a

post-disaster environment. The model assumes deviations from the current financing strategy

(S1) in the year of impact to reflect an additional financing requirement estimated at

$137,195.1 million, which will be funded primarily from multilateral/bilateral sources and the

ICM. The drawdown on a contingent credit facility from the IDB represents variable-rate

financing from a multilateral source. Otherwise, the strategy maintains the position of majority

fixed-rate financing, with longer tenors, but results in majority external financing (see Figures 22

and 23).

-

50.00

100.00

150.00

200.00

250.00

300.00

2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24

B ill

io n

s

Baseline Shock Scenario

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4 | P a g e

framework for projects to be submitted to PIMC through the PIMS Secretariat and are submitted to Cabinet along with the relevant appraisal documents for approval.

Inputs for PIMC Decision Making: In order to undertake these roles and functions the PIMC will be guided by information produced from the following sources:

A. VISION 2030 Jamaica - National Development Plan is the roadmap for making "Jamaica, the place of choice to live, work, raise families and do business”.

B. Growth Inducement Strategy - a strategic framework and a structured program of actions designed to achieve a quick turnaround in the economy and build a platform and momentum for medium-term growth. In essence, it captures the reality of the present moment which demands re-orienting our economic policy towards a sharpened focus on enhancing growth as the necessary basis for realizing sustained improvements in the social well-being of citizens, consistent with the goals of Vision 2030 Jamaica.

C. PSIP Policy Paper: This paper is developed by the Planning Institute of Jamaica to aid Cabinet’s decision making on the PSIP and is presented each year to the Cabinet for discussion and approval, prior to its approval of the Estimates of Revenue and Expenditure for the succeeding financial year and includes: a. A diagnosis of the PSIP Performance b. An analysis of the prevailing socio-economic and environmental conditions c. Recommendations for adjustments based on review of recent socio-economic

developments d. A forecast of likely impact of the continuing PSIP on development indicators, and e. Recommendation of prioritisation criteria for determining the size and

composition of the PSIP D. PIMS Guidelines: This is a handbook of the rules, procedures,

requirements and guidelines which shall be prescribed for the governance of all public investments (irrespective of source of funding and origin), in Ministries, departments, public bodies and public private partnership

E. PIM Information System (PIMIS): This is a web-enabled system that will serve as the repository of information on all public investments projects (central government, public bodies and public private partnerships), at the various stages of the project cycle (inclusive of concepts, feasibility, approval, implementation and evaluation) thereby allowing access for tracking of status and performance information on all projects as they move through the project cycle.

PIMS Secretariat as Institutional Support for PIMC: The role and the responsibilities of the PIMC and the PIMSEC are laid out in the Fourth Schedule of the Financial Administration and Audit (Amendment) Act 2014 hereinafter referred to as ‘the Act’. The PIMC and by extension its Secretariat, PIMSEC, has a central role in the new PIMS. PIMC is the principle authority on PIMS in Jamaica and as such is a key

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June 12, 2021


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