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cigarette excise taxes, was also based on Goodchild et al. (2016).[13] First, we calculated the

number of daily cigarette smokers aged 15 or above, which was to multiply the population esti-

mates for aged 15 or older by the adult cigarette smoking prevalence. Next, we assumed that

the price elasticity for cigarette smoking prevalence is -0.15, -0.2, and -0.25 in high, middle,

and low-income countries respectively. If the cigarette excise taxes were increased by I$1, the

reduction in the number of daily cigarette smokers (S) in the 2016 adult population (aged 15

or above) was calculated as S × ΔP × p in which S is the baseline number of smokers, ΔP is the

percentage change in retail prices, and p is the prevalence elasticity.

In order to estimate the number of smoking-attributable deaths averted due to the I$1 tax

increase, we followed Goodchild et al. (2016) and assumed a relatively low risk of smoking-

attributable death, which is 33% for conservative estimates. Another assumption made by this

method is that 95% of smokers aged 15–29 who quit will avoid an early death. This percentage

would drop to 75% for smokers aged 30 to 39, to 70% for those aged 40 to 49, to 50% for those

aged 50 to 59, and to 10% for those aged 60 or above. This assumption leads to a global adjust-

ment factor that is 74% based on the 2015 age profile of the world population. Finally, the

number of smoking-attributable deaths averted was calculated using the following formula

33%×74%×ΔS (the reduction in the number of daily cigarette smokers).

Data sources. Population estimates for people aged 15 (in total and by age groups) or

above came from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) and the United

Nation Population Division. Cigarette smoking prevalence among adults came from a variety

of sources, including the 2016 prevalence estimates by the Euromonitor International, and the

most recent tobacco use/smoking prevalence estimates compiled by the WHO’s report on

global tobacco epidemic 2017. For countries where the most recent tobacco use survey was

conducted before 2011, the daily cigarette smoking prevalence estimates (defined as the per-

centage of population who smoke every day) came from the WHO global report on trend in

tobacco smoking 2000–2025. In addition, some countries only reported estimates of cigarette

smoking prevalence and tobacco smoking prevalence, rather than daily cigarette smoking

prevalence. In those cases, we used the proportion of daily cigarette smoking among these

more broadly defined smoking activities at the country level as an adjustment factor. This

adjustment factor (proportion) can be derived using the country-level estimates reported in

the WHO global report on trend in tobacco smoking 2000–2025. If the proportion adjustment

factors were not available for the country, we then assumed that 85% of tobacco smokers were

cigarette smokers, among whom 85% were smoking daily, which was chosen because most

derived adjustment factors center around these numbers.

The WHO FCTC implementation cost of best-but policies for the next 15

years

Method. In order to estimate the total cost of implementing the four best-buy policies rec-

ommended by the WHO FCTC for the next 15 years, we used the NCDs Costing Tool devel-

oped by the WHO (...
June 12, 2021


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